Cardiovascular Atlas
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Estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk

A percentage that estimates the chance of a cardiovascular disease event over the next ten years in a person who does not already have cardiovascular disease. Prevention guidance uses it, together with age and risk factors, to decide who is offered a preventive medicine. In the USPSTF statements, cut-offs of 10% and 7.5% mark who is offered a statin, and a cut-off of 10% marks the aspirin advice for people aged 40 to 59.

Also called 10-year CVD risk

  • Biomarker
  • In this atlas

Overview

Technical summary

The risk comes from a multivariable equation. The USPSTF abstracts do not name the equation they use, so this page does not say which one. The PREVENT equations are one set: their paper describes them as sex-specific, race-free and built for US adults aged 30 to 79 without known cardiovascular disease, using smoking status, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, use of blood pressure or statin medicine, diabetes and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Which events count differs by tool: the USPSTF aspirin abstract counts heart attack and stroke, PREVENT counts atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure. The PREVENT paper has two corrections whose text was not read.

What is measured

Measure
A percentage estimate, from a risk equation, of the chance that a person without known cardiovascular disease has a cardiovascular disease event over the next 10 years.
Assay context
Calculated from risk factors with a multivariable equation; the equation named by a given guideline must be read in that guideline. PREVENT uses smoking status, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, use of blood pressure or statin medicine, diabetes and estimated glomerular filtration rate.

Interpretation

  • Description Guidance Certainty not assessed

    The USPSTF statin recommendation sets its risk bands on an estimated 10-year cardiovascular event risk: 10% or more for the B grade and 7.5% to under 10% for the C grade. Its aspirin recommendation uses a 10-year cardiovascular risk of 10% or more for people aged 40 to 59. The American Heart Association PREVENT equations are described in a 2024 paper as risk equations for cardiovascular disease, meaning atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure, in US adults aged 30 to 79 without known cardiovascular disease. Their abstract does not say over what period they predict.

    Source problem. A cited source is corrected. Check the sources before relying on this claim.

    Applies to Adult
    • Adults without known cardiovascular disease. The USPSTF statin statement applies to ages 40 to 75 and the aspirin statement to adults 40 to 59 for the risk-based grades; the PREVENT equations were developed for US adults aged 30 to 79.
    • Not stated in the abstracts read.
    • United States (USPSTF statements and the AHA PREVENT paper; the abstracts give US figures)
    • Adults, with the age ranges above
    Follow-up Not applicable (guideline context)
    Certainty method
    Not assessed
    Limitations
    The USPSTF abstracts do not name the risk equation behind their 10-year estimates, so this claim does not say that any guideline uses PREVENT. The tools count different events: the USPSTF aspirin abstract counts heart attack and stroke, while PREVENT counts atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure. PubMed lists two corrections to the PREVENT paper (2024-03-12 and 2026-10-14); their text was not read, so it is not known whether they change anything stated here. Only abstracts were read.
    Last checked
    2026-10-15
    Next evidence check due
    Not scheduled
    Sources and citations (6)

    1. Supports Statin Use for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in Adults: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement

      Guideline · JAMA · Edition Recommendation statement published in JAMA 2022;328(8):746-753. PubMed abstract and bibliographic data, plus the date line of the USPSTF recommendation page (both fetched 2026-10-15). The full statement, the evidence review and the Task Force grade definitions were not read. PubMed lists no correction to the statement. · Published 2022-08-23 · DOI: 10.1001/jama.2022.13044 · PMID: 35997723

      Locator
      Abstract, RECOMMENDATION, sentence 1 and sentence 2
      How it applies
      Statin bands at 10% or more and 7.5% to under 10%.
      Retrieved
      Source effective date
      Not reported
      Source state
      Current
      Snapshot hash
      26c18d7cbf633fb4ee622238cbe61ce16a4c51fd9f00ee5831f49c33988642a5
      Reuse basis
      PubMed record fetched through NCBI E-utilities on 2026-10-15. Only the hash of the bytes is kept; nothing is committed. The USPSTF copyright notice (see source core:uspstf-about) lets the public reproduce USPSTF work only without changes, except as fair use, and asks that the USPSTF page be cited. That is not clear permission to repost wording, so public text is cite_only: public pages state the recommendation in the atlas's own words, with a citation and a link. The notice also says the work may not be sold for profit or folded into a profit-making venture without written permission from AHRQ (see source cardio:uspstf-copyright-notice, fetched 2026-10-15). Whether the atlas counts as such a venture is not settled here, so every USPSTF fact is kept in the atlas's own words. Quote rows from the abstract are short evidence fragments for the reviewer, and the USPSTF page is quoted only for its date line.

    2. Supports Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement

      Guideline · JAMA · Edition Recommendation statement published in JAMA 2022;327(16):1577-1584. PubMed abstract and bibliographic data, plus the date line of the USPSTF recommendation page (both fetched 2026-10-15). The full statement, the evidence review, the modelling study and the Task Force grade definitions were not read. PubMed lists no correction to the statement. · Published 2022-04-26 · DOI: 10.1001/jama.2022.4983 · PMID: 35471505

      Locator
      Abstract, RECOMMENDATION, sentence 1
      How it applies
      The aspirin advice for ages 40 to 59 uses a 10-year risk cut-off of 10%.
      Retrieved
      Source effective date
      Not reported
      Source state
      Current
      Snapshot hash
      d43e63346c024aa19ef4470fbc45a459bbc0e1d08f24c2561f1d003d9d21602e
      Reuse basis
      PubMed record fetched through NCBI E-utilities on 2026-10-15. Only the hash of the bytes is kept; nothing is committed. The USPSTF copyright notice (see source core:uspstf-about) lets the public reproduce USPSTF work only without changes, except as fair use, and asks that the USPSTF page be cited. That is not clear permission to repost wording, so public text is cite_only: public pages state the recommendation in the atlas's own words, with a citation and a link. The notice also says the work may not be sold for profit or folded into a profit-making venture without written permission from AHRQ (see source cardio:uspstf-copyright-notice, fetched 2026-10-15). Whether the atlas counts as such a venture is not settled here, so every USPSTF fact is kept in the atlas's own words. Quote rows from the abstract are short evidence fragments for the reviewer, and the USPSTF page is quoted only for its date line.

    3. Background Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement

      Guideline · JAMA · Edition Recommendation statement published in JAMA 2022;327(16):1577-1584. PubMed abstract and bibliographic data, plus the date line of the USPSTF recommendation page (both fetched 2026-10-15). The full statement, the evidence review, the modelling study and the Task Force grade definitions were not read. PubMed lists no correction to the statement. · Published 2022-04-26 · DOI: 10.1001/jama.2022.4983 · PMID: 35471505

      Locator
      Abstract, OBJECTIVE, sentence 1, fragment 2 of 3
      How it applies
      The aspirin review counts heart attack and stroke as CVD events.
      Retrieved
      Source effective date
      Not reported
      Source state
      Current
      Snapshot hash
      d43e63346c024aa19ef4470fbc45a459bbc0e1d08f24c2561f1d003d9d21602e
      Reuse basis
      PubMed record fetched through NCBI E-utilities on 2026-10-15. Only the hash of the bytes is kept; nothing is committed. The USPSTF copyright notice (see source core:uspstf-about) lets the public reproduce USPSTF work only without changes, except as fair use, and asks that the USPSTF page be cited. That is not clear permission to repost wording, so public text is cite_only: public pages state the recommendation in the atlas's own words, with a citation and a link. The notice also says the work may not be sold for profit or folded into a profit-making venture without written permission from AHRQ (see source cardio:uspstf-copyright-notice, fetched 2026-10-15). Whether the atlas counts as such a venture is not settled here, so every USPSTF fact is kept in the atlas's own words. Quote rows from the abstract are short evidence fragments for the reviewer, and the USPSTF page is quoted only for its date line.

    4. Supports Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations

      Publication · Circulation · Edition Published in Circulation 149(6):430-449 (issue date 2024-02-06; electronic publication 2023-11-10). PubMed abstract and bibliographic data only. PMC lists a copy (PMC10910659) that is not in the PMC Open Access subset, so it was not fetched. PubMed lists 2 corrections to the paper; their text was not read. The publisher field is the journal title as PubMed gives it. · Published 2024-02-06 · DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.067626 · PMID: 37947085 · PMCID: PMC10910659

      Locator
      Abstract, BACKGROUND, sentence 1
      How it applies
      Primary prevention guidelines recommend multivariable equations for absolute CVD risk.
      Retrieved
      Source effective date
      Not reported
      Source state
      Corrected
      Snapshot hash
      eb27c94e71df2650a0f6e6f153dffabe8fcdc0014f7bc39249d737f1908eaf30
      Reuse basis
      PubMed record fetched through NCBI E-utilities on 2026-10-15. Only the hash of the bytes is kept; nothing is committed. Bibliographic metadata and short quotations from the PubMed abstract, under 25 words each. The full text was not redistributed and the societies' reuse terms were not reviewed. Public text is quote under the PubMed abstract rule: only short quotations from the PubMed abstract, with attribution.

    5. Supports Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations

      Publication · Circulation · Edition Published in Circulation 149(6):430-449 (issue date 2024-02-06; electronic publication 2023-11-10). PubMed abstract and bibliographic data only. PMC lists a copy (PMC10910659) that is not in the PMC Open Access subset, so it was not fetched. PubMed lists 2 corrections to the paper; their text was not read. The publisher field is the journal title as PubMed gives it. · Published 2024-02-06 · DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.067626 · PMID: 37947085 · PMCID: PMC10910659

      Locator
      Abstract, BACKGROUND, sentence 3
      How it applies
      PREVENT was developed for US adults 30 to 79 without known CVD.
      Retrieved
      Source effective date
      Not reported
      Source state
      Corrected
      Snapshot hash
      eb27c94e71df2650a0f6e6f153dffabe8fcdc0014f7bc39249d737f1908eaf30
      Reuse basis
      PubMed record fetched through NCBI E-utilities on 2026-10-15. Only the hash of the bytes is kept; nothing is committed. Bibliographic metadata and short quotations from the PubMed abstract, under 25 words each. The full text was not redistributed and the societies' reuse terms were not reviewed. Public text is quote under the PubMed abstract rule: only short quotations from the PubMed abstract, with attribution.

    6. Supports Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations

      Publication · Circulation · Edition Published in Circulation 149(6):430-449 (issue date 2024-02-06; electronic publication 2023-11-10). PubMed abstract and bibliographic data only. PMC lists a copy (PMC10910659) that is not in the PMC Open Access subset, so it was not fetched. PubMed lists 2 corrections to the paper; their text was not read. The publisher field is the journal title as PubMed gives it. · Published 2024-02-06 · DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.123.067626 · PMID: 37947085 · PMCID: PMC10910659

      Locator
      Abstract, METHODS, sentence 2
      How it applies
      The primary outcome was atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure.
      Retrieved
      Source effective date
      Not reported
      Source state
      Corrected
      Snapshot hash
      eb27c94e71df2650a0f6e6f153dffabe8fcdc0014f7bc39249d737f1908eaf30
      Reuse basis
      PubMed record fetched through NCBI E-utilities on 2026-10-15. Only the hash of the bytes is kept; nothing is committed. Bibliographic metadata and short quotations from the PubMed abstract, under 25 words each. The full text was not redistributed and the societies' reuse terms were not reviewed. Public text is quote under the PubMed abstract rule: only short quotations from the PubMed abstract, with attribution.

Record details

Record id
cardio:estimated-10-year-cvd-risk
Content hash
56d2bdf89b375285fd353f743206a01fd2e18ce1fc54f7980f89016951600159