{
  "release_id": "5dcd9b263fe17744",
  "id": "cardio:estimated-10-year-cvd-risk",
  "owner": "cardio",
  "kind": "biomarker",
  "slug": "estimated-10-year-cvd-risk",
  "name": "Estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk",
  "aliases": [
    "10-year CVD risk"
  ],
  "atlases": [
    "cardio"
  ],
  "summary_plain": "A percentage that estimates the chance of a cardiovascular disease event over the next ten years in a person who does not already have cardiovascular disease. Prevention guidance uses it, together with age and risk factors, to decide who is offered a preventive medicine. In the USPSTF statements, cut-offs of 10% and 7.5% mark who is offered a statin, and a cut-off of 10% marks the aspirin advice for people aged 40 to 59.",
  "summary_technical": "The risk comes from a multivariable equation. The USPSTF abstracts do not name the equation they use, so this page does not say which one. The PREVENT equations are one set: their paper describes them as sex-specific, race-free and built for US adults aged 30 to 79 without known cardiovascular disease, using smoking status, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, use of blood pressure or statin medicine, diabetes and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Which events count differs by tool: the USPSTF aspirin abstract counts heart attack and stroke, PREVENT counts atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure. The PREVENT paper has two corrections whose text was not read.",
  "editorial_state": "draft",
  "last_substantive_edit": "2026-10-15",
  "last_evidence_check": "2026-10-15",
  "next_review_due": null,
  "identifiers": [],
  "navigation": {
    "cardio": {
      "system": [
        "heart",
        "blood-vessels"
      ],
      "condition-area": [
        "risk-and-prevention"
      ]
    }
  },
  "payload": {
    "measure": "A percentage estimate, from a risk equation, of the chance that a person without known cardiovascular disease has a cardiovascular disease event over the next 10 years.",
    "assay_context": "Calculated from risk factors with a multivariable equation; the equation named by a given guideline must be read in that guideline. PREVENT uses smoking status, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, use of blood pressure or statin medicine, diabetes and estimated glomerular filtration rate.",
    "interpretation_claims": [
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  "content_digest": "56d2bdf89b375285fd353f743206a01fd2e18ce1fc54f7980f89016951600159",
  "review": {
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    "current": [],
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  "claims": [
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      "release_id": "5dcd9b263fe17744",
      "id": "cardio:claim-estimated-10-year-cvd-risk-use",
      "owner": "cardio",
      "subject_entity_id": "cardio:estimated-10-year-cvd-risk",
      "category": "descriptive",
      "statement": "The USPSTF statin recommendation sets its risk bands on an estimated 10-year cardiovascular event risk: 10% or more for the B grade and 7.5% to under 10% for the C grade. Its aspirin recommendation uses a 10-year cardiovascular risk of 10% or more for people aged 40 to 59. The American Heart Association PREVENT equations are described in a 2024 paper as risk equations for cardiovascular disease, meaning atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure, in US adults aged 30 to 79 without known cardiovascular disease. Their abstract does not say over what period they predict.",
      "context": {
        "id": "cardio:ctx-prevent-us-adults-30-79-without-cvd",
        "label": "Adults without known CVD (risk estimation for prevention decisions)",
        "recipient": "adult",
        "population": "Adults without known cardiovascular disease. The USPSTF statin statement applies to ages 40 to 75 and the aspirin statement to adults 40 to 59 for the risk-based grades; the PREVENT equations were developed for US adults aged 30 to 79.",
        "care_setting": "Not stated in the abstracts read.",
        "geography": "United States (USPSTF statements and the AHA PREVENT paper; the abstracts give US figures)",
        "life_stage_note": "Adults, with the age ranges above",
        "life_stage_terms": null,
        "gestational_age_min_days": null,
        "gestational_age_max_days": null,
        "gestational_age_basis": null,
        "postnatal_age_min_days": null,
        "postnatal_age_max_days": null,
        "gestational_age_status": null,
        "postnatal_age_status": null,
        "followup_description": "Not applicable (guideline context)",
        "eligibility": {
          "inclusion": [
            "No known cardiovascular disease",
            "Aged 30 to 79 for PREVENT; 40 to 75 for the USPSTF statin recommendation"
          ],
          "exclusion": [
            "People with known cardiovascular disease"
          ]
        }
      },
      "evidence_stage": "guidance",
      "certainty": "not_assessed",
      "certainty_method": null,
      "limitations": "The USPSTF abstracts do not name the risk equation behind their 10-year estimates, so this claim does not say that any guideline uses PREVENT. The tools count different events: the USPSTF aspirin abstract counts heart attack and stroke, while PREVENT counts atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure. PubMed lists two corrections to the PREVENT paper (2024-03-12 and 2026-10-14); their text was not read, so it is not known whether they change anything stated here. Only abstracts were read.",
      "editorial_state": "draft",
      "checked_at": "2026-10-15",
      "next_review_due": null,
      "valid_from": null,
      "valid_to": null,
      "citations": [
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          "locator": "Abstract, RECOMMENDATION, sentence 1 and sentence 2",
          "applicability_note": "Statin bands at 10% or more and 7.5% to under 10%.",
          "snapshot": {
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          "source": {
            "id": "cardio:uspstf-2022-statin",
            "source_type": "guideline",
            "title": "Statin Use for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in Adults: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement",
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            "publication_date": "2022-08-23",
            "publisher": "JAMA",
            "edition": "Recommendation statement published in JAMA 2022;328(8):746-753. PubMed abstract and bibliographic data, plus the date line of the USPSTF recommendation page (both fetched 2026-10-15). The full statement, the evidence review and the Task Force grade definitions were not read. PubMed lists no correction to the statement.",
            "reuse_basis": "PubMed record fetched through NCBI E-utilities on 2026-10-15. Only the hash of the bytes is kept; nothing is committed. The USPSTF copyright notice (see source core:uspstf-about) lets the public reproduce USPSTF work only without changes, except as fair use, and asks that the USPSTF page be cited. That is not clear permission to repost wording, so public text is cite_only: public pages state the recommendation in the atlas's own words, with a citation and a link. The notice also says the work may not be sold for profit or folded into a profit-making venture without written permission from AHRQ (see source cardio:uspstf-copyright-notice, fetched 2026-10-15). Whether the atlas counts as such a venture is not settled here, so every USPSTF fact is kept in the atlas's own words. Quote rows from the abstract are short evidence fragments for the reviewer, and the USPSTF page is quoted only for its date line.",
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          "locator": "Abstract, RECOMMENDATION, sentence 1",
          "applicability_note": "The aspirin advice for ages 40 to 59 uses a 10-year risk cut-off of 10%.",
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          "source": {
            "id": "cardio:uspstf-2022-aspirin",
            "source_type": "guideline",
            "title": "Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement",
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            "publication_date": "2022-04-26",
            "publisher": "JAMA",
            "edition": "Recommendation statement published in JAMA 2022;327(16):1577-1584. PubMed abstract and bibliographic data, plus the date line of the USPSTF recommendation page (both fetched 2026-10-15). The full statement, the evidence review, the modelling study and the Task Force grade definitions were not read. PubMed lists no correction to the statement.",
            "reuse_basis": "PubMed record fetched through NCBI E-utilities on 2026-10-15. Only the hash of the bytes is kept; nothing is committed. The USPSTF copyright notice (see source core:uspstf-about) lets the public reproduce USPSTF work only without changes, except as fair use, and asks that the USPSTF page be cited. That is not clear permission to repost wording, so public text is cite_only: public pages state the recommendation in the atlas's own words, with a citation and a link. The notice also says the work may not be sold for profit or folded into a profit-making venture without written permission from AHRQ (see source cardio:uspstf-copyright-notice, fetched 2026-10-15). Whether the atlas counts as such a venture is not settled here, so every USPSTF fact is kept in the atlas's own words. Quote rows from the abstract are short evidence fragments for the reviewer, and the USPSTF page is quoted only for its date line.",
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            "reuse_basis": "PubMed record fetched through NCBI E-utilities on 2026-10-15. Only the hash of the bytes is kept; nothing is committed. The USPSTF copyright notice (see source core:uspstf-about) lets the public reproduce USPSTF work only without changes, except as fair use, and asks that the USPSTF page be cited. That is not clear permission to repost wording, so public text is cite_only: public pages state the recommendation in the atlas's own words, with a citation and a link. The notice also says the work may not be sold for profit or folded into a profit-making venture without written permission from AHRQ (see source cardio:uspstf-copyright-notice, fetched 2026-10-15). Whether the atlas counts as such a venture is not settled here, so every USPSTF fact is kept in the atlas's own words. Quote rows from the abstract are short evidence fragments for the reviewer, and the USPSTF page is quoted only for its date line.",
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