# Estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk Biomarker · id `cardio:estimated-10-year-cvd-risk` · Cardiovascular Atlas · release `5dcd9b263fe17744` (public) > General information from published sources, not medical advice, and not reviewed by clinicians. Check the cited source before relying on anything here. The atlas's own text and curation may be reused under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/): credit the atlas, and do not use it commercially. See the atlas About page. Text quoted from a source stays under that source's own terms, given as the source's reuse\_basis. The atlas's reuse terms do not cover it. The downloads list each quotation with its source in third\_party\_quotations. Also called: 10-year CVD risk Browse, organ or system: Heart; Blood vessels Browse, condition area: Risk and prevention ## In plain language A percentage that estimates the chance of a cardiovascular disease event over the next ten years in a person who does not already have cardiovascular disease. Prevention guidance uses it, together with age and risk factors, to decide who is offered a preventive medicine. In the USPSTF statements, cut-offs of 10% and 7.5% mark who is offered a statin, and a cut-off of 10% marks the aspirin advice for people aged 40 to 59. ## Technical summary The risk comes from a multivariable equation. The USPSTF abstracts do not name the equation they use, so this page does not say which one. The PREVENT equations are one set: their paper describes them as sex-specific, race-free and built for US adults aged 30 to 79 without known cardiovascular disease, using smoking status, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, use of blood pressure or statin medicine, diabetes and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Which events count differs by tool: the USPSTF aspirin abstract counts heart attack and stroke, PREVENT counts atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure. The PREVENT paper has two corrections whose text was not read. ## Claims, with the population each applies to ## Context: Adults without known CVD (risk estimation for prevention decisions) Recipient: Adult; Population: Adults without known cardiovascular disease. The USPSTF statin statement applies to ages 40 to 75 and the aspirin statement to adults 40 to 59 for the risk-based grades; the PREVENT equations were developed for US adults aged 30 to 79.; Care setting: Not stated in the abstracts read.; Geography: United States (USPSTF statements and the AHA PREVENT paper; the abstracts give US figures); Life stage: Adults, with the age ranges above; Follow-up: Not applicable (guideline context) ### The USPSTF statin recommendation sets its risk bands on an estimated 10-year cardiovascular event risk: 10% or more for the B grade and 7.5% to under 10% for the C grade. Its aspirin recommendation uses a 10-year cardiovascular risk of 10% or more for people aged 40 to 59. The American Heart Association PREVENT equations are described in a 2024 paper as risk equations for cardiovascular disease, meaning atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure, in US adults aged 30 to 79 without known cardiovascular disease. Their abstract does not say over what period they predict. - Category: Description - Evidence stage: Guidance - Certainty: Certainty not assessed - Applies to: Recipient: Adult; Population: Adults without known cardiovascular disease. The USPSTF statin statement applies to ages 40 to 75 and the aspirin statement to adults 40 to 59 for the risk-based grades; the PREVENT equations were developed for US adults aged 30 to 79.; Care setting: Not stated in the abstracts read.; Geography: United States (USPSTF statements and the AHA PREVENT paper; the abstracts give US figures); Life stage: Adults, with the age ranges above; Follow-up: Not applicable (guideline context) - Limitations: The USPSTF abstracts do not name the risk equation behind their 10-year estimates, so this claim does not say that any guideline uses PREVENT. The tools count different events: the USPSTF aspirin abstract counts heart attack and stroke, while PREVENT counts atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and heart failure. PubMed lists two corrections to the PREVENT paper (2024-03-12 and 2026-10-14); their text was not read, so it is not known whether they change anything stated here. Only abstracts were read. - Last checked: 2026-10-15 - Source problem: a cited source is corrected. Check the sources before relying on this claim. - Sources: 1. Supports: Statin Use for the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in Adults: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement (Guideline, edition Recommendation statement published in JAMA 2022;328(8):746-753. PubMed abstract and bibliographic data, plus the date line of the USPSTF recommendation page (both fetched 2026-10-15). The full statement, the evidence review and the Task Force grade definitions were not read. PubMed lists no correction to the statement.) Locator: Abstract, RECOMMENDATION, sentence 1 and sentence 2. Retrieved 2026-10-15T13:48:56Z. Source state: Current. Snapshot hash: 26c18d7cbf633fb4ee622238cbe61ce16a4c51fd9f00ee5831f49c33988642a5. How it applies: Statin bands at 10% or more and 7.5% to under 10%. 2. Supports: Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement (Guideline, edition Recommendation statement published in JAMA 2022;327(16):1577-1584. PubMed abstract and bibliographic data, plus the date line of the USPSTF recommendation page (both fetched 2026-10-15). The full statement, the evidence review, the modelling study and the Task Force grade definitions were not read. PubMed lists no correction to the statement.) Locator: Abstract, RECOMMENDATION, sentence 1. Retrieved 2026-10-15T13:48:56Z. Source state: Current. Snapshot hash: d43e63346c024aa19ef4470fbc45a459bbc0e1d08f24c2561f1d003d9d21602e. How it applies: The aspirin advice for ages 40 to 59 uses a 10-year risk cut-off of 10%. 3. Background: Aspirin Use to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement (Guideline, edition Recommendation statement published in JAMA 2022;327(16):1577-1584. PubMed abstract and bibliographic data, plus the date line of the USPSTF recommendation page (both fetched 2026-10-15). The full statement, the evidence review, the modelling study and the Task Force grade definitions were not read. PubMed lists no correction to the statement.) Locator: Abstract, OBJECTIVE, sentence 1, fragment 2 of 3. Retrieved 2026-10-15T13:48:56Z. Source state: Current. Snapshot hash: d43e63346c024aa19ef4470fbc45a459bbc0e1d08f24c2561f1d003d9d21602e. How it applies: The aspirin review counts heart attack and stroke as CVD events. 4. Supports: Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations (Publication, edition Published in Circulation 149(6):430-449 (issue date 2024-02-06; electronic publication 2023-11-10). PubMed abstract and bibliographic data only. PMC lists a copy (PMC10910659) that is not in the PMC Open Access subset, so it was not fetched. PubMed lists 2 corrections to the paper; their text was not read. The publisher field is the journal title as PubMed gives it.) Locator: Abstract, BACKGROUND, sentence 1. Retrieved 2026-10-15T13:48:57Z. Source state: Corrected. Snapshot hash: eb27c94e71df2650a0f6e6f153dffabe8fcdc0014f7bc39249d737f1908eaf30. How it applies: Primary prevention guidelines recommend multivariable equations for absolute CVD risk. 5. Supports: Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations (Publication, edition Published in Circulation 149(6):430-449 (issue date 2024-02-06; electronic publication 2023-11-10). PubMed abstract and bibliographic data only. PMC lists a copy (PMC10910659) that is not in the PMC Open Access subset, so it was not fetched. PubMed lists 2 corrections to the paper; their text was not read. The publisher field is the journal title as PubMed gives it.) Locator: Abstract, BACKGROUND, sentence 3. Retrieved 2026-10-15T13:48:57Z. Source state: Corrected. Snapshot hash: eb27c94e71df2650a0f6e6f153dffabe8fcdc0014f7bc39249d737f1908eaf30. How it applies: PREVENT was developed for US adults 30 to 79 without known CVD. 6. Supports: Development and Validation of the American Heart Association's PREVENT Equations (Publication, edition Published in Circulation 149(6):430-449 (issue date 2024-02-06; electronic publication 2023-11-10). PubMed abstract and bibliographic data only. PMC lists a copy (PMC10910659) that is not in the PMC Open Access subset, so it was not fetched. PubMed lists 2 corrections to the paper; their text was not read. The publisher field is the journal title as PubMed gives it.) Locator: Abstract, METHODS, sentence 2. Retrieved 2026-10-15T13:48:57Z. Source state: Corrected. Snapshot hash: eb27c94e71df2650a0f6e6f153dffabe8fcdc0014f7bc39249d737f1908eaf30. How it applies: The primary outcome was atherosclerotic CVD and heart failure. ## Connected pages - Used to decide on prevention medicines: Preventing heart attack, stroke and heart failure (`cardio:cardiovascular-prevention`) ## Provenance Content hash: 56d2bdf89b375285fd353f743206a01fd2e18ce1fc54f7980f89016951600159 Last substantive edit: 2026-10-15 Evidence last checked: 2026-10-15